Political Betting: Can You Still Bet on the ANC?

Never before has the South African political landscape been so tumultuous. With faith in the ANC dwindling thanks largely to the loadshedding fiasco and a general distrust in corrupt party practices, there has never been a better time for rival political parties to take the majority vote and become the leaders of South Africa.

The DA and EFF are hot on their tails, but neither have ever shown a real chance at taking the win as of yet. So what makes the 2024 election different from all the others? One might say that South Africans have decided that enough is enough.

For the budding political punters out there, the question comes down to this: is the ANC still the favourite to win the 2024 South African presidential elections? Find out with Sportingbet!

Since the days of Nelson Mandela, the ANC has only declined in popularity. This decline has been minimal however, and as we all know, they have enough of a following that they can afford to lose a couple thousand votes here and there. They’ve even lost the entirety of the Western Cape and still they’ve maintained the majority vote at a national level.

But have they pushed their limits? Loadshedding is a mark on their already smudged name, and there’s a strong suspicion that it’s not just the result of wet coal, maintenance on power plants, or any of the million other excuses that have been put forward. Significant suspicion has grown around the connection between loadshedding and corruption in the party. 

Whilst this cannot be confirmed (and is vehemently denied by the ANC) elections are rarely about fact and fiction, and more about public perception — and this suspicion may have successfully worn away at the little trust there was left between the ANC and their voters. How much strain can the ANC’s voters take before the bow finally breaks? Has a decade in the dark finally wormed its way into the heart of their loyal supporters? 

These questions will really spice up the betting markets come the 2024 election. Odds for the ANC’s win are still lackluster bet at 1.06 as a result of their unbroken win streak since 1994. With the political climate in the state that it's in, now might be the time to look at competing parties and put your money on some epic odds.

The DA’s popularity has waxed and waned over the last decade. They proudly boast that they’re everything the ANC aren’t. Uncorrupted, people focused, deliverers of promised change. But it’s one thing to tout these claims and another to live them. 

The DA have had their chance to control major municipalities and have had them taken away again, and one has to ask themselves why. They’re often accused of servicing the middle and upper classes of the municipalities they’ve gained control over, leaving the voting majority that see no change at all with little to be content about.

This is when we ask ourselves, will those fed up with the ANC immediately turn to the DA? Have they so successfully soiled their names with the everyman that a vote for the EFF seems more to their interests? 

The odds that DA will win are at a generous 9.0, so if this is really their year, the political punter stands to make an amazing profit.

Polls revealed that in 2019, the EFF had 10.8% of the population’s favour whilst a new poll released in 2024 saw that percentage skyrocket to 18.5%. In terms of wrestling the majority away from the ANC, that’s a massive increase. We can officially say that the EFF is a serious contender in the battle to lead South Africa.  

The EFF and their charismatic leader, Julius Malema, have been shrouded in controversy since their inception in 2013. Whether they’re supporting the nationalisation of all land, banks, and mines, or upsetting parliament with rambunctious rhetoric, they’ve managed to stay in the forefront of the South African consciousness. And it’s worked. People love the upsetting of the status quo and see the EFF as a powerful driver of change, whether that be positive or negative.

They’re speaking the right language to communicate with a fed up South Africa. Those who distrust the DA now have a home in the EFF. The question is, just how many people will side with them come election day? No matter which way things go, they’re going to cause a significant upset at the polling stations. 

Odds that EFF will win are sitting at 29.00, which most would argue is just too much of a longshot to beat the ANC and the DA, but this is the year that the ANC are likely to lose the majority vote, so no one knows what could happen.

In the end, it's always anyone's game. 2024 is a year for upsets and surprises, so punters are in for a wild ride when they place their bets.